What could the next Congress look like? Andy Blunt's Midterms Outlook 2026
Critical campaign weeks remain, and modern political dynamics can shift quickly but if Republicans succeed in mobilizing their non-habitual voters, the margins could tighten further.”
WASHINGTON, DC, UNITED STATES, October 15, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- What could the next Congress look like?— HBS CEO Andy Blunt
With Election Day less than three weeks away, the fight for control of the House and Senate is tightening, and the polling is sending mixed signals.
Driving the news: HB Strategies CEO Andy Blunt released Midterms Outlook 2026 today, a race-by-race look at where the House and Senate stand heading into the final stretch.
Why it matters: Conflicting data across states and districts makes this cycle harder to call than most. The report shows where the margins are and which races to watch.
What’s inside:
•Three House scenarios: A narrow 222-213 Democratic majority, a 228-207 margin if Democrats sweep the top toss-ups, or a 232-203 “blue wave.”
•The flip list: Every Republican and Democratic House seat in play, ranked from most likely to toss-up.
•Redistricting: How map changes in 23 states could add six to 11 Republican seats.
•The Senate: Why Republicans are positioned to hold control, and where their margin could narrow.
What to watch: NY-17. An early lead for Rep. Mike Lawler (R) could signal a strong night for Republicans. A win by Cait Conley (D) likely opens the door to a Democratic House.
Read the full report →
Tom Alexander
HB Strategies
talexander@hbstrategies.us
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